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Initial Impacts of Tariffs Show Significant Impact on Imports in November 2019

But, first, some highlights from the tariffs imposed on October 13, 2019:

  • The primary beverage alcohol imports impacted by the tariffs are French, German and Spanish Wines less than 14% ABV in 2L or smaller containers, Irish or Scotch Single Malt (or straight) Whisky, and German, Spanish, UK Cordials and Liqueurs.
  • Collectively the imports of these products were down -10% in volume and -30% in value in November 2019 versus November 2018.
  • French wines and UK Whisky account for roughly 75% of the Value of these imports.
  • French Wines were down -18% by volume and -42% by value in November 2019 versus November 2018.
  • UK Whiskies were down -9% in volume and -36% in value in November 2019 versus November 2018.
  • Given the timing of orders and shipments it is likely that there were orders in suppliers systems that were not possible to change and were impacted by the tariffs in November 2019.
  • Average case prices for French wines and UK whisky both declined significantly, roughly -30% – implying either some price decreases were implemented to reduce the cost of the tariffs or mix was significantly impacted.

And now, the regular longer-term updates.

Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Grow +7.40% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through November 2019, Packaged Exports Decline -7.20%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) grew +7.90% by value over the last twelve months and grew +8.70% by value over the last three months. 26.3% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.
  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -10.0% by value over the last twelve months and declined -2.20% by value over the last three months. 20.7% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for BeerSpirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer grew +2.40% by volume and grew +5.40% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months imports grew +7.20% by volume and grew +11.5% by value. 70.8% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -20.5% by volume and grew +17.8% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months exports grew +3.70% by volume and grew +48.0% by value. 21.2% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +9.20% by volume and grew +13.0% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +10.0% and grew +7.80% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +4.90% by volume and grew +20.5% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +9.00% and grew +43.6% by value.
  • 29.6% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 53.2% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -34.1% by volume and declined -15.1% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -45.5% and declined -1.60% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -7.80% by volume and declined -13.9% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -27.3% and declined -15.1% by value.
  • 13.5% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Canada while 22.0% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +4.40% by volume and grew +2.30% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +5.70% and grew +1.60% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +11.8% by volume and declined -6.60% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +18.5% and grew +3.70% by value.
  • 34.2% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 26.8% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from Chile.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -7.20% by volume and declined -9.30% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -3.00% and grew +3.60% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +2.40% by volume and declined -3.00% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +4.10% and grew +10.9% by value.
  • 36.1% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 53.9% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

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The bw166 TBA Serving index increased +1.4% to 123.3 through November 2019

bw166 released The Total Beverage Alcohol report for twelve months through November 2019. 

Key points over the past twelve months include:

  • The bw166 TBA Serving index increased +1.4% to 123.3 versus last year (this index represents the change in servings of beverage alcohol entering the U.S. market).
  • Consumer expenditures for beverage alcohol total $266 billion, an increase of +3.6% driven more in the On Premise than the Off Premise.
  • Legal Drinking Age population is up +1.0% compared to servings growth of +1.4% – indicating that recent surveys showing a reduction in consumption are not apparent in the statistics of the market.
  • Over 80% of the growth in the Legal Drinking Age population is coming from those over 60.
  • Servings growth is dominated by Spirits, which is gaining share from both Beer and Wine. Beer servings show continuing declines while Wine servings are growing slightly.
  • Beer is seeing growth from Hard Seltzers and Mexican Imports though this growth is not offsetting declines in traditional beer sub-categories.
  • Sparkling Wine is the primary driver of growth in the Wine category.
  • Spirits servings are growing across sub-categories, especially Whisky, Tequila, and Cordials. Vodka is flat, even with the continued strong growth of Tito’s.

Jon Moramarco, the Managing Partner of bw166, is also a partner in and the editor of The Gomberg & Fredrikson report. Gomberg & Fredrikson has been tracking the U.S. wine market since 1948. Jon will be presenting a webinar for Gomberg and Fredrikson on Wednesday, January 15 at 9:00 AM Pacific time, which will be open to both Subscribers and Non-Subscribers. The content will include an update on the overall beverage alcohol market for 2019, key data points on the wine market for 2019, and an overview of how demographics have tracked with the beverage alcohol market over time and projections of how these will interact moving forward. Parties interested in joining the webinar may register at https://gfawine.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a4ec6df009d36ae225ba743b1&id=75f868c9dd&e=72513e6e77.

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Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Grow +8.00% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through October 2019, Packaged Exports Decline -8.60%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) grew +8.10% by value over the last twelve months and grew +10.7% by value over the last three months. 26.0% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -10.0% by value over the last twelve months and declined -4.90% by value over the last three months. 20.6% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer grew +1.70% by volume and grew +4.10% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months imports grew +0.700% by volume and grew +4.30% by value. 70.8% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -22.1% by volume and grew +11.3% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months exports declined -14.5% by volume and grew +26.9% by value. 21.3% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +10.2% by volume and grew +15.3% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +14.8% and grew +17.5% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -1.00% by volume and grew +13.6% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +2.40% and grew +23.7% by value.
  • 30.0% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 53.1% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -29.2% by volume and declined -14.3% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -40.3% and declined -6.00% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -2.10% by volume and declined -12.4% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -34.9% and declined -14.0% by value.
  • 13.2% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Canada while 21.9% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +3.60% by volume and grew +2.50% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +5.50% and grew +4.50% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +11.2% by volume and declined -5.90% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +22.6% and grew +2.40% by value.
  • 34.5% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 24.4% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from New Zealand.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -4.20% by volume and declined -11.4% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +3.60% and declined -2.60% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +5.70% by volume and declined -0.200% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +8.40% and grew +12.6% by value.
  • 36.3% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 53.5% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

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Packaged Imports Grow +8.10% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through September 2019, Packaged Exports Decline -11.8%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) grew +8.40% by value over the last twelve months and grew +13.5% by value over the last three months. 25.7% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -9.70% by value over the last twelve months and declined -6.70% by value over the last three months. 20.4% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer grew +0.900% by volume and grew +3.00% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months imports declined -0.200% by volume and grew +3.60% by value. 70.3% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -25.8% by volume and grew +1.80% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months exports declined -29.1% by volume and grew +4.40% by value. 21.5% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +9.90% by volume and grew +16.1% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +17.3% and grew +22.6% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -2.00% by volume and grew +18.3% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +26.1% and grew +50.1% by value.
  • 29.5% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 53.9% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -23.9% by volume and declined -16.7% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -36.2% and declined -13.8% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +2.80% by volume and declined -8.00% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -27.5% and grew +0.300% by value.
  • 13.2% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Canada while 21.2% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +3.60% by volume and grew +3.00% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +4.80% and grew +5.60% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +6.70% by volume and declined -7.80% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +25.3% and grew +3.80% by value.
  • 34.4% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 24.3% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from New Zealand.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -4.80% by volume and declined -12.5% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +2.90% and declined -19.2% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +6.30% by volume and declined -0.200% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +0.900% and grew +4.00% by value.
  • 36.4% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 53.3% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

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TBA Servings +0.9% L12M through Sept. 2019

The latest bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Overview shows that servings are up +0.9% for the 12 months through September 2019 – an unsurprising trend as LDA per capita consumption has been effectively flat over the last 25 years. While some recent qualitative surveys have highlighted consumers drinking less, the quantitative data does not show the same abrupt disruption.

Volumetrically, Beer stands at 47% of total servings, Spirits at 35%, and Wine at 18%. Total consumer spending on Beverage Alcohol is up +2.9% to $264.5 Billion – with Beer comprises 47%, Spirits at 25%, and Wine at 28% – highlighting the average premium per serving in the Wine category.

The key differentiator of the bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Overview is that it seeks to address and measure the entirety of the industry, rather than merely highlighting subsets of the market. For example, Nielsen and IRI scan offerings provide exceptionally detailed data into major Off-Premise retailers but only account for, in the case of Wine, roughly 50% of the volume and 35% of the dollars. Similarly, other sources such as Beer Institute and the recently launched SipSource underrepresent the more niche products that are increasingly sought out by customers through the likes of local Brew Pubs, Saloons, and direct-to-consumer shipments. bw166’s reports provide the macro-context needed to understand and frame the dynamics of the U.S. beverage alcohol market.

For more details regarding the total beverage alcohol market, subscribe to the bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Overview report.