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TBA Servings +0.9% L12M through Sept. 2019

The latest bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Overview shows that servings are up +0.9% for the 12 months through September 2019 – an unsurprising trend as LDA per capita consumption has been effectively flat over the last 25 years. While some recent qualitative surveys have highlighted consumers drinking less, the quantitative data does not show the same abrupt disruption.

Volumetrically, Beer stands at 47% of total servings, Spirits at 35%, and Wine at 18%. Total consumer spending on Beverage Alcohol is up +2.9% to $264.5 Billion – with Beer comprises 47%, Spirits at 25%, and Wine at 28% – highlighting the average premium per serving in the Wine category.

The key differentiator of the bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Overview is that it seeks to address and measure the entirety of the industry, rather than merely highlighting subsets of the market. For example, Nielsen and IRI scan offerings provide exceptionally detailed data into major Off-Premise retailers but only account for, in the case of Wine, roughly 50% of the volume and 35% of the dollars. Similarly, other sources such as Beer Institute and the recently launched SipSource underrepresent the more niche products that are increasingly sought out by customers through the likes of local Brew Pubs, Saloons, and direct-to-consumer shipments. bw166’s reports provide the macro-context needed to understand and frame the dynamics of the U.S. beverage alcohol market.

For more details regarding the total beverage alcohol market, subscribe to the bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Overview report.

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Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Grow +6.90% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through July 2019, Packaged Exports Decline -11.0%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) grew +6.70% by value over the last twelve months and grew +11.2% by value over the last three months. 25.8% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -8.60% by value over the last twelve months and declined -8.40% by value over the last three months. 20.4% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer grew +2.00% by volume and grew +3.80% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months imports grew +4.20% by volume and grew +7.50% by value. 69.7% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -22.1% by volume and grew +1.60% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months exports declined -34.1% by volume and grew +6.90% by value. 21.5% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +6.10% by volume and grew +13.4% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +10.5% and grew +14.5% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -1.80% by volume and grew +9.60% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +9.80% and grew +36.0% by value.
  • 3% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 51.3% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -17.2% by volume and declined -14.1% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -42.4% and declined -21.8% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +13.7% by volume and declined -6.40% by value. Over the last three months volumes stayed flat and declined -0.400% by value.
  • 6% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Canada while 21.2% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +1.50% by volume and grew +1.80% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +7.00% and grew +7.40% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +2.10% by volume and declined -10.9% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +25.3% and declined -9.70% by value.
  • 2% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 24.6% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from New Zealand.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -9.30% by volume and declined -13.4% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +0.700% and declined -13.7% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +3.00% by volume and declined -1.20% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -15.1% and declined -11.6% by value.
  • 5% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 54.0% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

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Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Grow +6.70% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through June 2019, Packaged Exports Decline -5.60%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) grew +6.40% by value over the last twelve months and grew +8.70% by value over the last three months. 25.7% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -6.30% by value over the last twelve months and declined -5.50% by value over the last three months. 22.9% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer grew +2.30% by volume and grew +3.70% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months imports grew +5.30% by volume and grew +9.00% by value. 69.2% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -18.0% by volume and grew +2.90% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months exports declined -31.4% by volume and grew +14.1% by value. 21.6% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +5.50% by volume and grew +12.6% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +6.00% and grew +10.8% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -7.70% by volume and grew +4.90% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -8.80% and grew +16.1% by value.
  • 9% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 50.7% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -24.7% by volume and declined -5.90% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -21.3% and declined -21.0% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +17.0% by volume and declined -7.70% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +20.0% and declined -7.10% by value.
  • 7% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Canada while 21.4% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +1.90% by volume and grew +2.30% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +6.70% and grew +4.70% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +1.20% by volume and declined -8.80% by value. Over the last three months volumes grew +35.1% and grew +9.40% by value.
  • 8% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from France while 24.5% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from New Zealand.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -13.2% by volume and declined -9.90% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -6.80% and declined -0.600% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +6.80% by volume and grew +1.40% by value. Over the last three months volumes declined -8.10% and declined -8.90% by value.
  • 9% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 54.7% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

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Industry Update Through June 2019

The bw166 TBA Overview Advance report for June 2019 indicates a market continuing the long-term trend of total servings of beverage alcohol growing at the rate of increase in Legal Drinking Age Population – both having grown +1.0% over the last 12 months.

Spirits is gaining share of standardized servings with overall growth of +3.6% over the past 12 months.  Beer has been flat with servings showing negligible change. Wine is showing weakness with servings down -1.0% over the past year driven mostly by losses of low-end bulk imports.

Consumers continue to increase spend for beverage alcohol with overall spend up +2.8%.  However, most of this is driven by the on premise with spend growing +5.0% while off premise spend is only growing +1.0%. Over the past few months spending in the off premise has seen a deceleration.

On premise spending growth is being driven primarily by operator margin expansion so very little, if any, of this is seen by wholesalers or producers.

With a number of public companies reporting either quarterly or annual results for June, the following table highlights industry total metrics to compare against (wholesale value is used as a proxy for supplier revenues).

 

3 Months

6 Months

12 Months

Beer Volumes

No Change

-0.2%

No Change

Beer Wholesale Value

+1.1%

+0.1%

+1.0%

Spirits Volumes

+3.7%

+4.3%

+3.6%

Spirits Wholesale Value

+0.8%

+1.7%

+0.8%

Wine Volumes

+0.5%

+0.2%

-0.7%

Wine Wholesale Value

+2.1%

+1.5%

+1.0%

 

For more details regarding the total beverage alcohol market, subscribe to the bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Overview report.

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Mexico – Imports and Exports to/from the U.S. – TBA Packaged Imports +11.2% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through May 2019, Packaged Exports -22.2%

Beer:

  • Imported beer is +6.7% by volume and +8.6% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months imports are +9.7% by volume and +17.8% by value.
  • Exported beer is -46.8% by volume and -47.2% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months exports are -72.1% by volume and -70% by value.
  • Over the last twelve months, Mexico comprised 68.99% by value of all imported beer into the U.S. while comprising 12.8% by value of all exported U.S. beer.
  • Beer is 69.57% of TBA imports from Mexico and 38.28% of TBA exports to Mexico by value.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months are +1.4% by volume and +21.2% by value over. Over the last three months volumes are +7.9% and +17.2% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months are -9.1% by volume and -4.9% by value over. Over the last three months volumes are +2.2% and +15.1% by value.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months are -9.1% by volume and +77.1% by value. Over the last three months exports are -26% by volume and +71.3% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months are -11.6% by volume and -3.4% by value. Over the last three months exports are +87.9% by volume and -2% by value.
  • Over the last twelve months, Mexico comprised 17.71% by value of all imported spirits (packaged and bulk) into the U.S. while comprising 3.27% by value of all exported U.S. spirits (packaged and bulk).
  • Spirits (packaged and bulk) is 30.33% of TBA imports from Mexico and 51.2% of TBA exports to Mexico by value.

For more details regarding imports and exports, including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the Beer, Spirits, and Wine Import and Export reports.