Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Decline -5% By Value Over L12M through August 2020, Packaged Exports Grow +2%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) declined -4% by value over the last twelve months and declined -5% by value over the last three months. 30% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -1% by value over the last twelve months and declined -18% by value over the last three months. 22% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer declined -5% by volume and declined -2% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, imports grew +0% by volume and grew +3% by value. 71% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -24% by volume and grew +9% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, exports declined -34% by volume and declined -9% by value. 19% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +2% by volume and declined -6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +5% and declined -6% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +12% by volume and grew +16% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +9% and grew +4% by value.
  • 30% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 48% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -37% by volume and grew +5% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -27% and declined -26% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +11% by volume and declined -4% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +37% and declined -20% by value.
  • 28% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Panama while 23% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +9% by volume and declined -6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +13% and declined -14% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +14% by volume and grew +17% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +18% and grew +46% by value.
  • 36% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from Italy while 25% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from Chile.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -13% by volume and declined -6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -22% and declined -15% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +10% by volume and grew +3% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +40% and grew +24% by value.
  • 39% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 58% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

Beverage Alcohol and the Pandemic

On September 24th, 2020, bw166 published its Total Beverage Alcohol Overview through August 2020. August marks almost six months of the impacts of the pandemic. The industry has seen a dramatic shift in consumer purchasing patterns by channel. The change has significantly benefited markets tracked by syndicated data companies such as Nielsen and IRI.

  • The bw166 Total Beverage Alcohol Index sits at 124.8 at the end of August 2020. The Index is up 1.9% from August 2019, measuring the growth in overall beverage alcohol servings.
  • Significant speculation exists to suggest that consumption has increased significantly due to the pandemic. Given that the bw166 Servings Index has grown slightly faster than the LDA population (which has increased by 1.0% over the past 12 months), per capita consumption has increased slightly. The data translates to less than one serving per LDA every 60 days.
  • The trends for six months ending August are:
    • Beer volume entering distribution: -2.2%. The decline is a result of declines in imports, primarily driven by Mexican Beer imports.
    • Wine volume entering distribution: +4.0%. 70% of the growth is driven by imports of Sangria, Coolers, and other flavored wine products.
    • Spirits volume entering distribution: +3.4%. The growth has been driven by +7.0% growth of domestically bottled products offset by a -4.8% decline in imported products.
  • Consumer spending on Beverage alcohol is up in the Off-Premise but not enough to make up for losses in the On-Premise.
    • Consumer spending for six months ending August totals $121.3 Billion, down -$23.9 Billion (-16.5%) versus the same period last year.
    • Syndicated data indicates continual trading up in the Off-Premise. Consumers are likely willing to spend more, given their savings in the On-Premise.
  • The On-Premise is challenging to track, given the fragmentation of On-Premise channels and across Beer, Wine, and Spirits products. Some states impose a Mixed beverage tax for Beverage Alcohol sales in the On-Premise. A few states and their trends on a value basis include:
    • Kansas: 12 months ending February 2020 +5.4%, six months ending August 2020 -45.0%, one month ending August 2020 -27.7%.
    • Tennessee: 12 months ending February 2020 +16.2%, six months ending August 2020 -59.6%, one month ending August 2020 -16.1%.
    • Texas data is only available through July, but the data includes a breakdown for Beer, Wine, and Spirits. The July data was negatively impacted by a second shut-down of bars in the state.
      • Beer: 12 months ending February 2020 +2.8%, five months ending July 2020 -65.5%, one month ending August 2020 -60.6%.
      • Wine: 12 months ending February 2020 +4.1%, five months ending July 2020 -66.5%, one month ending August 2020 -56.9%.
      • Spirits: 12 months ending February 2020 +8.9%, five months ending July 2020 -57.1%, one month ending August 2020 -49.4%.
  • The slight growth in servings entering distribution could be attributable to a small amount of pantry loading given channel shifts from Off-Premise to On-Premise. The market has seen some recovery in the On-Premise, but there is a long way to go. The one definitive forecast we can make is that beginning in March 2021, the channels tracked by Nielsen and IRI will show declines as the market comes up on the one-year anniversary of the pandemic.

TTB Approved 170.1K Products Over L12M through August 2020, A Decrease of -0.7K (–0.4%)

By Category:

  • Beer: 40.5K products approved over the L12M (+2.3% vs. last year) and 9.4K over the L3M (–10.5% vs. last year)
  • Spirits: 17.9K products approved over the L12M (+23.9% vs. last year) and 4.5K over the L3M (+11.9% vs. last year)
  • Wine: 111.7K products approved over the L12M (–4.3% vs. last year) and 27.7K over the L3M (–16.2% vs. last year)

By Origin:

  • Domestic: 91.8K products approved over the L12M (+9.3% vs. last year) and 23K over the L3M (+1.2% vs. last year)
  • Imports: 78.3K products approved over the L12M (–9.7% vs. last year) and 18.6K over the L3M (–25.2% vs. last year)

For more information regarding Product Approvals including detailed category breakdowns and origin information (State for Domestic products and Country for Imported products), subscribe to the bw166 Product Approvals Report or visit our website at www.bw166.com.

Beer, Spirits, & Wine – Packaged Imports Decline -6% By Value Over Last Twelve Months through July 2020, Packaged Exports Grow +1%

Total Beverage Alcohol:

  • Total beverage alcohol imports (including bulk and packaged) declined -5% by value over the last twelve months and declined -21% by value over the last three months. 29% of all imported beverage alcohol by value came from Mexico over the last twelve months.

  • Total beverage alcohol exports (included bulk and packaged) declined -1% by value over the last twelve months and declined -20% by value over the last three months. 21% of all exported beverage alcohol by value went to Canada over the last twelve months.

Each of the bw166 Import and Export Reports (for Beer, Spirits, and Wine) enable tracking Beverage Alcohol imports and exports on a monthly basis for volume, value in USD, and value in local currency for all major trading countries.

Beer:

  • Imported beer declined -7% by volume and declined -4% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, imports declined -20% by volume and declined -18% by value. 71% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico.
  • Exported beer declined -26% by volume and grew +9% by value over the last twelve months. Over the last three months, exports declined -44% by volume and declined -17% by value. 19% of exported beer by value goes to Chile.

For more details regarding imported and exported beer across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Beer – Imports and Exports report.

Spirits:

  • Imported packaged spirits for the last twelve months grew +0% by volume and declined -6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -11% and declined -24% by value.
  • Imported bulk spirits for the last twelve months grew +10% by volume and grew +8% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -3% and declined -17% by value.
  • 29% of all imported packaged spirits by value arrived from France while 47% of all imported bulk spirits by value arrived from Brazil.
  • Exported packaged spirits for the last twelve months declined -39% by volume and grew +3% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -31% and declined -21% by value.
  • Exported bulk spirits for the last twelve months declined -1% by volume and declined -3% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +23% and declined -23% by value.
  • 28% of all exported packaged spirits by value is destined for Panama while 23% of all exported bulk spirits by value is destined for Canada.

For more details regarding imported and exported spirits including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Spirits – Imports and Exports report.

Wine:

  • Imported packaged wine for the last twelve months grew +7% by volume and declined -6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +8% and declined -22% by value.
  • Imported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +15% by volume and grew +12% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +22% and grew +37% by value.
  • 35% of all imported packaged wine by value arrived from Italy while 26% of all imported bulk wine by value arrived from Chile.
  • Exported packaged wine for the last twelve months declined -12% by volume and declined -6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes declined -30% and declined -22% by value.
  • Exported bulk wine for the last twelve months grew +9% by volume and grew +3% by value. Over the last three months, volumes grew +37% and grew +20% by value.
  • 39% of all exported packaged wine by value is destined for Canada while 57% of all exported bulk wine by value is destined for United Kingdom.

For more details regarding imported and exported wine including detailed category breakdowns across all countries, subscribe to the bw166 Wine – Imports and Exports report.

Stable Per Capita Beverage Alcohol Consumption Over Past 30 Years

  • Currently, there is a proposal to modify the U.S. Dietary Guidelines which includes reducing the definition of moderate drinking for men from the current recommendation of up to two drinks per day to no more than one.
  • The committee cited evidence that alcohol consumption in the United States has increased during the past 20 years.
  • However, servings of beverage alcohol per legal drinking age adult (LDA, 21+) have been relatively stable since 1990 and are comparable to the levels of 1960. (The NIAAA data that the Committee cites uses a 14+ Population base for their computations)
  • Despite this stability, the Committee is recommending a 50% reduction in recommended alcohol consumption. If the purpose of using a comparison of the NIAAA data with the population 14+ was to either address underage drinking or binge drinking, the dietary guidelines do not seem the appropriate way to address these challenges.
  • bw166 projects servings across all channels grow between 1% and 2% in 2020. Comparatively, the LDA population will increase by 1.1%. Again, showing stability in overall servings per capita.
  • bw166 sources this information from tax paid shipments into the market on an annual basis since 1960. The volumetric data was converted to standard servings and compared to the LDA population sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • For an electronic copy of this information and additional details please click here.